Special analysis of the machine tool industry: Industrial mother machines, breaking through quickly

(Report Producer/Author: China Post Securities, Liu Zhuo)

1 industrial mother machine, quickly break through

1.1 Riding on the recovery of the manufacturing industry, moving towards independent and controllable domestic substitution

China has firmly established its position as the world's leading manufacturing country, and the proportion of manufacturing added value in the global market continues to increase. The added value of China's manufacturing industry increased from 625.2 billion US dollars in 2004 to 4975.6 billion US dollars in 2022. During this period, the CAGR of China's manufacturing industry added value was about 12.21%, accounting for 30.38% of the global share, which increased from 8.61%. However, the CAGR of the global manufacturing industry added value during the same period was only about 4.62%, and China's speed far exceeded the global average.

After overcoming the negative impact of the external economic environment, China's manufacturing fixed assets investment has gradually recovered and maintained a rapid growth rate. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics on Wind, as of May 2023, China's manufacturing fixed assets investment has increased by 6% year on year.

On both the production and consumption sides, Chinese machine tools are the world's largest participants. According to the 2022 Global Market Report released by VDM German Machinery Industry Network, the total output value of the global machine tool industry in 2022 is about 80.3 billion euros. China ranks first in the world with an output value of 25.7 billion euros, accounting for 32% of the global market share. Japan and Germany follow closely, with output values of 9.9 billion euros and 9.7 billion euros respectively, accounting for 12% and 12% of the global market share. The CR5 of the global machine tool industry is as high as 71%, reflecting a high concentration of the global machine tool manufacturing market. In 2022, the global consumption of the machine tool industry was 80.8 billion euros, with China firmly ranking first in the market with a scale of 26 billion euros, followed by the United States and Germany with consumption of 9.7 billion euros and 5.2 billion euros respectively. Their market shares in the global demand market were 12% and 7%, respectively. The demand of the top three countries has already accounted for half of the global machine tool consumption. In the past five years, China has maintained its leading position in both the supply and demand of the global machine tool market. In 2022, it maintained a high-speed growth of 18% year-on-year in output value and 10% year-on-year in consumption. Coupled with the continuous recovery of the manufacturing real economy since this year, some demand that was originally stagnant due to the economic environment has also begun to be released, and the market will have greater growth space in the future.